Lebanon politics

 

Lebanon. A country that has faced a crisis, with a deadly explosion and a political catastrophe.A country that we know little about its politics.  Corruption has dominated the country since the 1975-90 civil war. In terms of its economy, Lebanon exports little and imports heavily, while its economy is facing debt due to years of inefficiency, waste and corruption. Economic growth has fallen to zero in the country and the national debt is around 150% of GDP, at $85 billion. 

The country has been in a state of limbo since the Doha agreement of 2008. The agreement marked the end of an 18 month long political crisis. Before the agreement, riots swept across Beirut due to the government's decision to outlaw the opposition party, Hezbollah's private telephone network and reassign Beirut airport's security chief, which is close to the opposition. This resulted in heavy clashes between Hezbollah and the majority party, Hariri. This was the first time since the Lebanese Civil War in 1975-1990, that weapons were used by Hezbollah on the front. The Arab council quickly acted to stop the violence. It took 5 days of difficult negotiations among Lebanon's rival political groups in Doha and the Qatari authorities said the agreement called for moves within 24 hours for Parliament in Beirut to begin the process of electing General Michel Suleiman, the commander of Lebanon's army, as president. 

The deal was expected to lead to the formation of a cabinet in which Hezbollah, supported by Iran and Syria, along with its allies would enjoy the veto power it had sought in the negotiations. It imposed governments of national unity between Prime Minister Saad Hariri's pro-Saudi camp and Hezbollah's pro-Iran camp. However, this proved difficult when it came to regional conflicts. The Baabda Declaration in June 2012, reached after a process of national dialogue, was meant to secure Lebanon's neutrality in regional conflicts, with both sides promising to hold back on external alliances and coexist despite different over major regional issues like the war in Syria, the standoff between the US and Iran or relations with Israel or the Gulf states. 

However, this was ignored when the opposition, Hezbollah, inserted itself into the war in Syria in support of the Assad regime. It is difficult as Iran backs the Shi'ite opposition group Hezbollah and the US-allied Gulf Arab states, have backed Hariri. In the US, Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist group due to being heavily armed. The Doha agreement gives the Hezbollah-led opposition bloc enough seats in the cabinet for a veto. It also states that, "the use of arms or violence is forbidden to settle political difference." Yet, this has not been the case as Hezbollah has been refusing to give up any of its military capability, arguing that it is essential in the struggle against Israel. 

This has continued to fracture politics in Lebanon. There have been protests with protestors accusing the political elite of exploiting state resources for their own benefit through networks of patronage and clientelism that are combining business and politics. The issue is that, unlike many Arab countries, Lebanon is not dominated by one strong rule but has a number of leaders and parties with sway over the country's various sectarian groups. Parliament is half Christian and half Muslim. The prime minister must be a Sunni Muslin, the president a Maronite Christian and the speaker of parliament a Shi'ite. The protestors demand an overall of the system. 

Lebanon has lost relations with other countries. Saudi Arabia withdrew $4 billion of aid to the Lebanese army and internal security forces, and no aid or deposits were forthcoming as the economic and financial situation is deteriorating. The country has been cut off by its Gulf partners, with travel bans being implemented for Gulf Cooperation Council nationals to Lebanon and a decrease in investments and bank deposits. This has created a country where banks are empty, power cuts in the capital are widespread, businesses are closing doors due to lack of customers and the dollar value of the national minimum wage has fallen from around $450 per month to $80 per month. 

There is zones of local unrest and violence in the absence of a functioning state. For example, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt will consolidate his power in Mount Lebanon, Sunni former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Sunni areas, the various Christian leaders in their areas of influence and of course, Hezbollah will consolidate power in southern Lebanon and on the Israeli border, Beirut's southern suburbs, and Bekka to the east, on the Syrian border. The worse the crisis gets, the more Lebanon will be drawn under the power of Iran. It has already offered to sell oil and gasoline to the Lebanese government in Lebanese pounds and on past occasions, its leaders have vowed that, if the Lebanese authorities just say the word, they would provide Lebanon with electricity. 

Now, the country is in even bigger turmoil after the Beirut explosion. Citizens of Lebanon are pointing at Lebanon's corrupt and criminally negligent political leadership to blame. This has resulted in the government of prime minister Hassan Diab resigning on August 10. For decades, Lebanese leaders have grew accustomed to neglecting the national interest and being bailed out by international assistance. Dollar deposited would land in the central bank from Gulf donors, loans would be offered by European countries and foreign aid packages would flow to Lebanese state institutions - only for the majority of this money to end up lining the pockets of the country's rulers, who frequently overcame their political differences to share state resources. 

The recent blast is the result of the decades during which political classes in Lebanon and outside it fostered the country's dysfunctional political system. This has resulted in the international community changing its rhetoric. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has raised £228 million in relief funds, but it has affirmed that relief funds will go directly to the Lebanese people, and that longer-term economic assistance would be dependent on Lebanon implementing structural reforms. Lebanon needs foreign assistance but what it needs more desperately are reforms that would counter the corruption and lack of accountability that has led it to this state in the first place. 

A new government in the country could take months to form. The president of Lebanon, Michael Aoun, has asked the Prime Minister Hassan Diab and his cabinet to say in office until a new cabinet could be formed. This is due to there being no agreement on who should replace Diab. Protesters had been demanding that the entire country's political elite step down amid the claims of corruption and mismanagement. Prior to the explosion, the country was nearing towards a famine with the worst economic crisis in decade and the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Lebanese pound has continued to lose its value since initial protests began in October 2019. Many residents lost their jobs as the price of food and basic goods continued to rise. This means that any new government would have to handle the economic crisis that is poised to leave as much as 75% of the country in poverty, according to the World Bank, as well as the coronavirus pandemic that is overwhelming the country's healthcare system and the aftermath of the explosion. 

We are dealing with a country that is on its last legs. It needs complete reform and perhaps a government of a more developed country to take control. It continues to criminalise peaceful speech, with prosecuting people that exercise free speech. Under its nationality law, children and spouses of Lebanese women do not have the same right to nationality as do children and spouses of Lebanese men. It still criminalises same-sex relations and transgender women in Lebanon face systemic violence and discrimination in accessing basic services, including education, employment, health care and housing. 

Lebanon's Covid-19 response has overlooked people with disabilities, and children with disabilities cannot access remote education on an equal basis with others. Its health sector is struggling to provide patients with urgent and necessary life-saving medical care due to the government's failure to provide private and public hospitals with the funds it owes them. Medical supplies, including gloves and masks, are scarce. The international community is helping the situation, with Trump saying on Monday that the US has already sent three planes loaded with medical supplies, food and water to Lebanon and would be sending additional planes. However, the country is still faced with turmoil and affected by skyrocketing unemployment. Hunger is spreading throughout the country of 6.8 million people. 

Protesters have been fighting for change since October last year when the government announced new tax measures, enraging Lebanese citizens. On October the 29th, less than two weeks after the protests broke out, Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned saying he had hit a "dead end." The new government formed in January and is dominated by the militant group Hezbollah and its allies. The government's resignation could signify a blow for the militant group. We need our international community to step up more in order to tackle Lebanon's politics.