Venezuela's manipulation of COVID-19

A country that has drawn more media attention throughout the past couple of years due to its politics. If we go back to 2019, two men claimed to be the President of Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves on the planet and so little food that, in a single year, the average citizen lost 24lb.  The president Nicolas Maduro, secured a second term in a 2018 election, which was widely regarded as a sham. The other, Juan Guaido, took an oath of office on January the 23rd, which offered the nation the possibility of a peaceful way out of its catastrophe. 

Maduro rules with authoritarianism throughout Venezuela and the COVID-19 crisis has not changed this. He spent the last few years remaking the government to his liking - replacing justices on the Supreme Court, declaring emergency rules, and sidelining the parliament that the opposition had won in a free and fair ballot in 2015. Maduro also created the electoral apparatus that allowed him to remain in office without facing an opponent - a violation of the country's 1999 constitution. In response, the leader of parliament - Juan Guaido - said the presidential office had essentially been left vacant in January, the start of Maduro's rigged second term. In the days that followed this, most Latin American countries, the US and much of Western Europe recognised Guaido as the legitimate leader of the most troubled country in the hemisphere and mounted intense economic and diplomatic pressure on Maduro to step down. 

The foundation of this crisis and of Maduro's power can be traced back two decades ago, when socialist Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998 on a pledge to eliminate poverty. He delivered, for a time, using vast oil reserves from the state oil company PDVSA to fund wide-ranging welfare schemes, including free education and subsidized utilities. But the generosity was associated with corruption. He gifted key positions to his allies, including many military figures, in order to gain support. When strikes against this cronyism led to an economic crisis in 2002, he imposed currency controls, pegging Venezuela's bolivar to the dollar and allowing the government to pick and choose who could buy foreign exchange and import goods. He also spent all the oil money of the country, essentially throwing a big national party to make everyone support the government. The party ended in 2014 when a drop in global oil prices sent the revenues tumbling and the year after, Chavez died and Maduro was his chosen successor. 

Before this pandemic, life was not exactly bright. Nine out of ten families could not afford enough food. Violence spiked. A tenth of the population fled the country. Women sold their hair at the Colombian border for cash to continue their journey. The levels of crime in Venezuela have been unimaginable, higher than any other case in recent history. The regime of Maduro has powerful allies, of Russia and China, who have each loaned and invested billions of dollars to the government. Turkey continues to buy Venezuela's gold. But the country's natural resources of oil have been ransacked, its industries crippled and its institutions corroded. 

This has been exasperated even more with the pandemic. Venezuelan security forces are using the pandemic as cover to wage a disturbing campaign against dissenters, according to a new report by Human Rights Watch. The New-York based human rights groups said that dozens of journalists, health professionals, human rights lawyers and government opponents had been detained and prosecuted since President Nicolas Maduro declared Covid-19 state of emergency in March. The Maduro regime is using the lockdown measures as justification to crack down on dissent within the regime. 

People are fearing that the statistics reports of only 358 cases are worse than what Maduro's government is admitting and will likely deteriorate as the country's hospitals struggle to respond. A journalist in the capital, Caracas, who tweeted publicly available information about the epidemic was allegedly targeted by special forces who raided his house and assaulted two of his relatives. He was later charged with "using false information to destabilise the government." Furthermore, its targets have included Junior Pantoja, an opposition organiser who was seized by security forces on 8 May and died of suspected Covid-19 this week, and Nicmer Evans, a Chavista dissident and political commentator who was detained on 13 July for allegedly "inciting hatred" against the government. 

Some cases of the crackdown has involved physical abuse and torture. Maduro is taking to any extent in order to fight for his political survival. The government has been rocked by Covid-19's advance. Overcrowding in low-income areas and prisons, as well as generalised limited access to water in hospitals and homes, makes it likely that the new coronavirus will rapidly spread within the country. This lack of capacity can also drive people to leave the country, further straining the health systems of neighbouring countries and imperiling regional health more broadly. 

The health system in the country has collapsed. Shortages of medications and health supplies, interruptions of basic utilities at healthcare facilities, and the emigration of healthcare workers has led to a progressive decline in healthcare operational capacity. At 180 out of 195, Venezuela ranks among the countries least prepared to mitigate the spread of an epidemic in the 2019 Global Health Security Index. The doctors and nurses interviewed have said that soap and disinfectants are virtually nonexistent in their clinics and hospitals. The Carcas hospitals experience regular water shortages. Patients and personnel are required to bring their own water for drinking, for scrubbing up before and after medical procedures, for cleaning surgical supplies, and sometimes for flushing toilets. 

The Venezuelan authorities' response is severely undermined by their failure to publish epidemiological data, which is critical to address a pandemic, their harassment and persecution of journalists, health professionals, and others who raise awareness about deteriorating conditions in hospitals, gas shortages, and the spread of Covid-19. The Americas director of Human Rights Watch, Jose Miguel Vivanco, has said, "Foreign governments should contribute to Venezuela's Covid-19 response by funding UN humanitarian efforts to ensure the aid is distributed apolitically." 

Perhaps the country's geographical isolation could have curbed the spread of the virus, as there is such few flights coming and out of the country to begin with. But the spread of it and the truth over how severe the cases are is due to the negligence and corruption of those in the highest echelons of power. We think we have been hit hard by the pandemic, however, with a refugee crisis, a crumbled health system, ongoing power shortage and a hunger-stricken population, Venezuela has become a failed narcostate. It had an oil price war and now the even greater fear of the global recession has driven this price of oil further down - which makes up 98% of Venezuela's export earnings. 

These next few weeks and months are going to a volatile time for Venezuela. Will the humanitarian crisis push the country further down the path to becoming a failed state? Or might it finally topple the Maduro regime? Fears of the country's vulnerability and collapse could prompt a new wave of people attempting to flee the country. 

Ultimately, security forces are utilising the pandemic to their advantage - cracking down on dissent. Quarantine measures have become a justification to prevent people from gathering for anti-government protests. The government will gain a new level of control under the virus and the Venezuelans will lose their freedoms. Yet, the government has allowed illicit industries including drug trafficking and illegal gold mining to thrive in order to support among the elite and institutions including the military. The more pressure the government is under, the more that oil revenues dry up and social crises' grow. Thus, the more powerful that the gans and rebel groups that run those illicit activities become.

The support of Venezuela's powerful military has been crucial to Maduro's survival in office in the midst of his country's downfall.  The network of corruption that he allows means he can keep his status quo and remain in power. If someone were to act within the country, whether it be citizens or the military, it is clear that only real momentum will be made when it becomes an act of survival. When Venezuela has collapsed completely. And sadly, that might not be that far away in our current times.